Posted by Luke Krmpotich in NASCAR on February 22, 2012  |  0 Comments More from this author  |  Website

Welcome to Sports-at-Work’s official NASCAR predictions for the 2012 season!

With the Daytona 500 just days away, it’s time to lock in the preseason forecasts. After gazing long and hard into the crystal ball, Luke Krmpotich and Sam Salo sound off on a wide range of topics, from the basics (predicting the 2012 Chase field) to the esoteric (which driver is most likely to be suspended).

Think we’re off base? Leave a comment below to express your opinion.

The Five Quintessential Essentials

1. Who will be the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion? Nationwide Series? Camping World Truck Series?

Sam: Jeff Gordon, who will turn the Gordon+Gustafson equation into a winning formula; Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who will deny Elliot Sadler, Austin Dillon, and Sam Hornish Jr. a title; and James Buescher, who will actually run every race in 2012 and win championship honors.

Luke: Jimmie Johnson, who doesn't like not winning championships; Austin Dillon, who will take the series by storm; and Jason Leffler, if he runs the entire season for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Otherwise, it'll be Ty Dillon.

2. Who will make the Chase field in 2012?

Sam: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart.

Luke: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. Sorry, Dale Jr. fans!

3. Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. win a race? Where will he finish in the standings?

Sam: Yes, perhaps two, mostly probable at restrictor plate races (if he's on the other side of Jimmie Johnson, that is). A win needs to come quick out of the gate, however. He'll make the Chase and finish ninth when all is said and done.

Luke: Yes, and quite possibly the Daytona 500—but if he's winless after the summer Daytona race, he's in trouble. Look for a points finish around 15th.

4. Who will win the most Cup races in 2012? How many?

Sam: Jeff Gordon, who will finally master restarts, have enough Sunoco race fuel, and pick the right number of tires to take on final pit stops. Six new trophies will become new toys for Ella and Leo.

Luke: Jimmie Johnson. I'm predicting he'll quadruple his victory total from last year, with eight burnout celebrations in 2012.

5. Who will be the break-out driver this year? Who will be the break-down dude?

Sam: Joey Logano, aided by new crew chief Jason Ratcliffe, will finally win a race without fuel shenanigans, and will also take a restrictor plate track. He'll struggle to make the Chase, but contending for a wild card and winning a race or two will make last year's 22nd-place points bomb a thing of the past. Clint Bowyer, however, will overdose on 5-Hour Energy and miss the top 15 in points on a sugar high, becoming 2012's break-down dud.

Luke: I'm going with Kasey Kahne over A.J. Allmendinger—the Hendrick equipment will put him over the top. Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer will fail to live up to expectations over at Michael Waltrip Racing. 5-Hour Energy will wish they had stuck with Steve Wallace...well, okay, it won't be quite that bad.

Luke’s Triple Queries

1. Which Cup driver is most likely to get suspended?

Sam: Kyle Busch. In all probability, he'll run a squeaky clean ship this year, but brother Kurt is also under the same onus to look peachy for the press. Brian Vickers was relegated to a nebulous planet in the offseason, and most likely won't be a high-profile player in 2012. Unfortunately, NASCAR's favorite brawlers are in Sunday school in 2012. Boring.

Luke: Kyle Busch. Big brother Kurt knows he can't afford it at this point, but I'm afraid Kyle hasn't learned his lesson yet. Of course, if Brian Vickers gets a ride, he jumps to the top of this list.

2. How many NNS races will non-Sprint Cup drivers win?

Sam: Eight. With a number of big-time Cup series spoilers running only part-time in the NNS in 2012, expect drivers like Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Elliot Sadler, Austin Dillon, and Sam Hornish Jr. to take P1 numerous times.

Luke: Seven. My money is on Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon and Elliott Sadler to give the "Buschwhackers" a run for their money, and don't forget about JR Motorsports newcomer Cole Whitt.

3. Will Danica win a Nationwide race? Where will she finish in the NNS standings?

Sam: No, although a healthy number of top-5's and top-10's will make the season bright with a sixth-place points finish come Christmas season.

Luke: No. The IndyCar starlet will come close on a couple of occasions, but not quite finish the deal en route to a eighth-place finish in the points.

Sam’s Burning Questions

1. Which of the following drivers is most likely to improve their 2011 points finish by 10 positions in 2012: Martin Truex Jr. (18th in 2011), Jeff Burton (20th), Juan Montoya (21st), Joey Logano (22nd) or Jamie McMurray (27th)?

Sam: Jamie McMurray, whose abysmal 2011 points run gives him a great advantage here. Even if no wins or Chase contention comes of 2012, a refocused Ganassi organization should be able to give him a top-17 points finish.

Luke: None will do it, but Jeff Burton will come closest. He drives for a top-notch organization and historically is the most consistent driver of the bunch.

2.  Will Juan Montoya nab a win on an oval track?

Sam: No, but he'll certainly make a better showing of himself this year than in 2011. Expect a 75 percent chance of road course victory plus slight sunshine come Chase time. However, in the end, it's still mostly cloudy for Montoya in 2012.

Luke: No. I don't doubt the driving skills of NASCAR's "Pope," but I've predicted an oval win for Montoya and been proved wrong too many times already to give him the benefit of the doubt in 2012.

3. Will A.J. Allmendinger finally score a W?

Sam: Yes, but this answer is more of a shot from the hip at break-even odds. He'll look good at a number of races, but the answer to this mystery is still a very close call. Look at tracks like Daytona, Dover, and Texas for potential success.

Luke: I have a hard time with this one, but I have to answer in the negative. Allmendinger has the talent to get it done, but switching teams won't help matters as he tries to score his first Cup win.

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